6.8.6 Choosing Among Alternatives

Decision making should be based on a systematic evaluation of the alternatives against the criteria established earlier. A key, very rational part of this process involves determining the possible outcomes of the various alternatives. This information is vital in making a decision. The better the job done in generating alternatives and determining their possible outcomes, the greater the chance that an effective choice will be made. The choice process is mostly rational, but very skilled decision makers rely on intuition as well, especially for complex problems.

When Honda engineers pioneered the development of an engine that would get 55 miles per gallon, they had several alternatives to choose from. Important to their decision of the technology they chose, were the impacts of the new technology on the costs of production, compatibility with existing transmissions, and so on. Each possible technology had to be evaluated for its impact on these factors. Similarly, McDonalds Corporation, in considering new menu items for its fast food restaurants, has hundreds to choose from. Each potential menu item has to be evaluated against important criteria such as freezability (all McDonalds' ready‑made foods are frozen), compatibility with other menu items, taste, customer demand, and cost/price relationships.

Kimberly‑Clark's diaper division bet on Huggies Pull‑Ups, he did so totally from intuition. The product looked promising but development proved difficult. He stayed with the product and eventually he was proven right. At the end of 1991, the product had 31% of the U.S. market.